NFL Power Ratings Guide

Welcome to our Postgame Outlet power ratings! Here, we break down exactly what our team ratings mean and how you can use them to get a snapshot of the NFL landscape any given week.

In a nutshell, our power ratings tell you how many points better or worse a team is compared to an average NFL team. For example, if Green Bay is rated a +9, that means we see them as nine points stronger than a league-average team on a neutral field. If Kansas City is +8.5, then Green Bay would be about half a point better than Kansas City if they met somewhere neutral, without any other circumstances account for. 

Home field advantage also plays a role. On average, we give about one and a half points for home field, but some places like Green Bay or Seattle are a bit tougher for visiting teams, so we might bump that advantage up to two points. On the flip side, teams like Jacksonville or the Chargers might have a smaller home field bump, maybe just a single point. And we add a little extra half-point edge for prime time games, like Monday Night Football, for that extra intensity.

How we make lines: 

Green Bay is +9 and Kansas City is +8.5 example:
Green Bay vs Kansas City in London = Green Bay -0.5
Green Bay @ Kansas City for a typical 1ET/4ET kickoff = Kansas City -1
Green Bay @ Kansas City night game = Kansas City -1.5
Kansas City @ Green Bay for a typical 1ET/4ET kickoff = Green Bay -2.5 (remember we give +2 for Green Bay being at home, but only +1.5 for Kansas City being at home).
Kansas City @ Green Bay night game = Green Bay -3

It’s important to remember these ratings are a snapshot from the time they are made (which is usually sometime between Sunday Night and Monday Night). They move up and down as we get new info—like injuries, trades, or just realizing last year’s data isn’t as relevant anymore. 

Our ratings don’t account for those motivational edges that can come into play. Sometimes a team on a losing streak might come out extra fired up, or a team on a winning streak might be a little more relaxed. We don’t bake those factors into the numbers, so if you’re using these ratings to think about betting lines, just keep that in mind as an extra layer of context.

In short, these power ratings are meant to be a tool to help you understand the NFL landscape at a glance (from my perspective)—and maybe even give you a little edge if you’re thinking about making some picks. But remember, they’re always evolving, just like the game itself.

I would not go out and use these ratings for every game and make a big bet because the ratings say you should. Just like any power rating system, there is built in bias. I am always fighting the bias of what I saw on TV vs what the stats are saying. They both tell different pictures. This rating system is supposed to be some sort of blend for that.